Assad Flees Syria as Rebel Offensive Sweeps the Country in Days

DAMASCUS — Syrian state television fell silent in the early hours of 8 December 2024. When it flickered back to life, a different voice was reading a different script: “Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled.” By then, the former president was already in Moscow, granted asylum by the Kremlin according to Russian state media.

The speed of the collapse defied every prediction. A rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive from its stronghold in Idlib province on 27 November. Aleppo, Syria’s second city, fell within three days. Hama fell on 5 December. Homs, the strategic crossroads linking Damascus to the coast, was taken on 7 December with barely a fight. By the time rebel units reached the outskirts of Damascus on 8 December, army units were melting away, soldiers stripping off their uniforms and fleeing.

Assad had not made a public statement. His office released no communiqué. The only confirmation of his whereabouts came from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Russia had provided safe passage on “humanitarian grounds.” Moscow’s naval and air bases on the Syrian coast — its military anchor in the Mediterranean — remained in Russian hands under a tense arrangement with the new de facto authorities in Damascus.

The man who emerged as Syria’s effective ruler was Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Once an al-Qaeda affiliate, HTS had spent recent years trying to rebrand as a nationalist Islamist movement, breaking with transnational jihad and focusing on governing Idlib. In his first address after the fall of Damascus, al-Sharaa spoke of a transitional government, the protection of minorities, and the eventual drafting of a constitution. Many Syrians remained deeply sceptical.

The scenes in the capital were a mix of joy and chaos. Thousands poured into Sednaya Prison north of the city, cutting open cell doors and searching for family members who had disappeared years earlier. Some found the living; many more found only records and empty cells. Unexplained gunfire crackled through the streets for days.

The geopolitical tremors were immediate. Iran, which had invested billions of dollars and sent thousands of fighters to prop up Assad, saw its regional axis shattered. Hezbollah, already battered by its war with Israel, lost its overland supply line from Tehran. Israel bombed Syrian military assets, including suspected chemical weapons facilities, to prevent them from falling into militant hands. Turkey, which backed some rebel factions, emerged as the power broker of the hour.

For Syrians, the end of the regime opened a door few had allowed themselves to imagine. But what lies behind it — a stable transition, factional warfare, or something in between — remained anyone’s guess.