Modi Secures Third Term but Loses Parliamentary Majority in Election Shock

NEW DELHI — When the counting ended on 4 June 2024, the numbers on the Election Commission’s website told a story few had predicted. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which had governed alone for a decade, had won 240 seats — 32 short of the majority mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Narendra Modi would remain prime minister, but for the first time, he would need coalition allies to stay in power.

The opposition INDIA alliance, a bloc stitched together by the Congress party and more than two dozen regional outfits, captured 232 seats. Congress alone surged to 99, nearly doubling its 2019 tally. In Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most politically important state, the BJP lost more than 30 seats, with Samajwadi Party candidates defeating several high-profile incumbents.

The result was a political earthquake of a kind India had not experienced since 2004. For months, exit polls and opinion surveys had pointed to a comfortable BJP majority. Modi himself had predicted a 400-seat super-majority. Instead, voters in key heartland states delivered a sharp rebuke, apparently driven by concerns about unemployment, rural distress, and a costly election campaign that leaned heavily on religious polarisation.

The day after the results, Modi tendered his resignation as head of the outgoing government, a constitutional formality. The president then invited him to form a new government as leader of the National Democratic Alliance, the wider coalition the BJP leads. Two key allies — Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh — held enough seats to make or break the government. Both pledged support, but made it clear their backing came with policy expectations: more funds for their states, a review of contentious new military recruitment rules, and a seat at the table when major decisions are taken.

Modi was sworn in on 9 June at Rashtrapati Bhavan with a smaller cabinet. Several heavyweights from the BJP’s previous term were dropped, and portfolios were redistributed to accommodate coalition demands. The key ministries — home, defence, finance, external affairs — remained with the BJP, but the new power dynamics were visible.

The opposition, energised by the result, immediately challenged the government in parliament on issues ranging from the Agnipath military recruitment scheme to the investigation of opposition figures by federal agencies. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi called the verdict a defeat of “hatred and fear politics,” though the alliance remained too fragmented to form an alternative government.

For India, the immediate question is how Modi adjusts. Known for centralised, top-down governance, he now faces the unfamiliar terrain of coalition bargaining. The budget session in July 2024 was the first test, with allies pressing for concessions. The longer-term question is whether this result marks a temporary blip or a structural shift in Indian politics.